Fifteen
years ago, in 1999, Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee had visited Lahore , the cultural capital of Pakistan , on the invitation of
Prime Minister Sharif. During the visit both the leaders had signed the Lahore
Declaration to promote bilateral relations. Sharif and Vajpayee shared a vision
of peaceful and stable South Asia, only to be scuttled few months later due to
the Kargil war and the military coup in Pakistan .
Will
Modi and Sharif revive the spirit of Lahore ?
Modi
and Sharif share many common traits. Sharif is a businessman turned politician
and Modi is known for his pro-business policies during his twelve year-old rule
in the Western India state of Gujarat . Sharif
returned to power after a gap of 14 years in 2013. Modi’s political party, BJP
will be in power after a gap of 10 years. Both Sharif and Modi are in their
early 60s. They are young, dynamic and perceived effective. Their support base
differs from their previous regimes – the rule of Pakistan People’s Party
suffered from bickering and opacity and the rule of Indian National Congress
led United Progressive Alliance suffered from lethargy. Modi and Sharif enjoy a
strong support base with an absolute majority in their legislatures and are
capable of taking strong decisions.
But
Modi is not Vajpayee. While Vajpayee was popular in Pakistan
for his peace overtures, Modi is known for the communal riots that took place
in Gujarat in 2002 during his rule. The riots
killed more Muslims than Hindus. Though Indian courts have not found any
evidence to convict him, he continues to be perceived anti-Muslim by sections
of people. Modi throughout his electoral campaign stayed away from invoking
religion and mainly won on a plank of development. His party gained 282 seats
in 543-member lower house, a feat no party achieved since 1984. If his
electoral utterances are taken seriously, Modi as Prime Minister of India will
take an inclusive approach towards development and towards developing relations
with Pakistan .
During
an interview early this month to an Indian TV channel Modi argued that Pakistan
must rein in extremist networks to revive the peace process. The hardliners in Pakistan
dislike Modi and will use every opportunity to create havoc in Indo-Pak
relations. It will be no surprise if the extremists in Pakistan repeat
a 2008 Mumbai style attack to invoke a hard line response from the new
government. Unlike his mentor, Vajpayee, who during the Kargil War of 1999,
ordered the troops not to cross the Line of Control (the de facto border
between India and Pakistan in Kashmir ),
Modi may react differently. Any hijacking of foreign policy by the hardliners
in India and Pakistan
brings to mind the horrors of war between the two nuclear weapon powered
nations.
Modi
and Sharif will prefer to cooperate than to conflict as the initial exchange
between the two leaders indicates. In his reply to Sharif’s wishes, Modi talked
about poverty,
a common problem in the region, and his resolve to fight it. Both are known for
pro-business and pro-development policies and this can be a common ground for
developing bilateral relations. Modi during his rule in Gujarat
made high profile invitations to business houses for investment. Some of the
top Indian business houses invested in Gujarat
during his rule. When Tata’s famous low cost car Nano’s proposed factory was
stalled in the eastern state of West Bengal, Modi invited the industrial unit
to Gujarat .
The
businessman turned politician Sharif will be interested to cultivate the shared
interest in bilateral trade. Pakistan
in December 2013 postponed the granting of most favored nation status to India . Sharif
may now consider the time ripe for granting the status. This can be a welcome
gesture to start with. Before India ’s
elections, Sharif in February had made the case for flexible cross-border trade.
Hence, it is likely that economics will dominate the relations between the two
neighbors with eventual easing of tensions in areas of conflict such as Kashmir .
The
lack of bilateral trust is a major roadblock against peace. Modi and Sharif can
address the deficit. It is generally during election times that politicians
ratchet up religious and nationalistic passions to win the electorate. As both
the leaders are well ensconced in power, they can use the opportunity to
nurture close relations.
Barring
the 2002 scar, Modi’s image in India
is that of a transparent and strong leader. Similarly, Sharif’s image in Pakistan is not
sullied as that of some of his predecessors. Though adorned the post of prime
minister for a decade, Modi’s predecessor Singh did not possess the actual
power of the office as it was concentrated outside. Modi will not suffer from
that handicap. He will be able to take decisions and implement them. During his
election campaigns Modi harped on his vision of taking along all Indians to
build a strong and developed India .
If Modi is guided by this inclusive vision, it will be on expected lines that
India-Pakistan relations will gain meat, and Modi will follow in footsteps of
his mentor. But, if Modi cavorts to hard line tunes of sections of his party,
the bilateral relations may plunge further low. The new mandate provides Modi
the opportunity to bring on track the derailed relations between India and Pakistan . In this peace tango,
Sharif can be his matching partner.
(Published in eposweb.org)
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