Indian Army Chief’s recent statement that India is ready to face ‘two-front war’ simultaneously with Pakistan and China has ruffled the old tensions in the New Year with Pakistan reacting to the statement as usually strongly and with China remaining guarded in its criticism. The Indian Army Chief General Deepak Kapoor in a statement in the last week of December 2009 while reviewing India’s military doctrine, a routine exercise every five years, in the training centre in Shimla announced India’s new strategy to counter the two neighbours in the case of eventual attacks. The timing of the statement, the gravity of the regional situation, and the uneasy situation in the region emanating out of the problems of terrorism have further compounded the regional politics in South Asia.
The regional situation in South Asia has never been peaceful and stable enough to allow the countries of the region to pursue their national policy agenda in a peaceful manner. The differing ambitions of nations at times backed up by the jingoistic attitudes and grandstanding, and the inherent tensions within the borders of these countries coupled with the lack of requisite civic culture have put the countries in the region in the vortex of instability and under development. The regional forums like SAARC have failed to achieve any substantial results for regional cooperation. India’s statement about two-front war at this critical juncture has been questioned by many quarters. Particularly, while India-Pakistan relations are passing through a turbulent phase, and while India-China relations are not at a good shape, it is natural and obvious to raise concerns at Indian army chief’s statement at this juncture.
The first explanation with which most of the Indian establishment will agree is that it is routine exercise of the Indian army, hence there is nothing exceptional or surprise element to it. When the new army doctrine will be devised, or prepared, then only the exact intent of the Indian army in stating this strategy can be comprehended. It is a fact that India has considered China and Pakistan as potential threats. India has fought three wars with Pakistan and one with China. There are also reports how China and Pakistan collude to develop a front which can be probably used against India. The army chief’s statement is a reflection of this concern of Indian establishment which expressed the Indian readiness to fight a possible war simultaneously with China and Pakistan if and when that occurs. The border between India and Pakistan even today witnesses intermittent violence, and between India and China there are thousands of miles of unsettled and contested border. Similar is the case of unsettled border with Pakistan in Kashmir. Hence the argument is India may not be in a mood to go to war with powers China and Pakistan. But the statement may be considered of a deterrence value, which can probably be used as a kind of self-defence formula by India to further strengthen its ‘cold start’ strategy in the event of war.
The opposite view point appears equally forceful. After the terror attacks in Mumbai in 2008, India-Pakistan relations have reached a new low, and India has repeatedly demanded that Pakistan must take action against the culprits of the attack. Pakistan, India argues, has failed in its promise to bring to justice the culprits of the attack. Besides the issue of terrorism, both the countries too have different perceptions in the context of Afghanistan, and also on many other issues. Regarding China, the last year witnessed much acrimonious exchange of statements between India and China particularly on the issue of territorial jurisdiction and on the issue of Dalai Lama. But, the time of tensions does not allow such a provocative statement that may further add to the tensions instead of defusing the same. China was mild but firm in its criticism. Chinese official news agency Xinhua observed that Indian army chief’s statement is not going to ease tensions in South Asia rather it will further aggravate the tensions in the region. Reactions from Pakistan were, however, sharp. Pakistan foreign office spokesperson on 4 January 2010 called this statement ‘absurd and irresponsible.’ He further criticized India as the statement, for Pakistan, ‘betrays a hostile intent as well as a hegemonic and jingoistic mindset which is quite out of step with the realities of our time.’ Pakistan Foreign Minister, Shah Mehmood Qureshi observed while Pakistan at home is confronting with radical elements and sacrificing its soldiers for the sake of peace and stability in Pakistan, such a statement is absurd.
Looking at the issue from a broader perspective, it is yet difficult to decipher the exact intentions behind the statement of the Indian army chief. In international politics it is said that retaining the deterrent capability is more difficult than fighting war. Perhaps the statement reflected India’s intention to retain its deterrent capability without any recourse to war. If the intention is defensive then it might have some value. But if the intention is offensive, it will only add to tensions in the region. The final draft of the military doctrine will likely take into account all these factors into account. However, for the time being, the fact remains that the statement has made the South Asian regional politics further complex. With the Pakistan army chief’s statement that Pakistan is ready to face Indian onslaught, the situation has become further uneasy. The initial days of the new year, it can be safely said, have augmented the tension in South Asia with three nuclear powers at loggerheads, an alarming situation not only for the region but for the world as a whole.
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