The presidential elections in Sri Lanka on 26 January 2010 and the results declared the day after has created tensions in the island nation, which has been passing through innumerable crises after the horrendous defeat of LTTE last year after a bloody battle. The election results have shown the fractured verdict again in ethnic lines. Though some analysts have argued that the election results this time reflected participation of all communities disregard of ethnic diversities, the fact remains that the reelection of incumbent President, Mahinda Rajapaksa is mainly based on the support of Sinhalese dominated southern parts of the country. This support base of the President is likely demean the importance of minorities like Tamils and Muslims, and further jeopardize their future already devastated by the bloody war in the north eastern parts of the country last year.
Both the President Rajapaksa and the former Army Chief and opposition candidate Sarath Fonseka emerged war heroes last year after the army trounced the Tamil tigers and killed their leader Vellupillai Prabhakaran. Rajpaksa for the first time got elected in 2005 on a promise that he will end the Tamil insurgency and bring the country to the path of peace and development under the framework of united Sri Lanka. It was under his presidency that the Sri Lankan army led by Fonseka waged the violent war last year that continued about two months ending in the defeat of the LTTE. The international attention on Sri Lanka remained high last year not only because of the war itself, but because of the consequences of the war that befell on the innocent civilians. Besides the death of thousands including the militant cadres of the Tamil tigers, the war also left about a quarter million Tamils homeless, displaced and finding themselves languishing in government run camps.
After the victory of Sri Lankan army over the rebels, the government was in a mood to capitalize on the gains of the war. But apparently the government of Rajapaksa wanted to address the Tamil alienation and promised to address the sufferings of the ethnic minorities. Perhaps in a mood to assuage the minorities, aftermath of the war he addressed the nation in Sinhalese as well as Tamil languages. His 14-point 2010 manifesto emphasized on a modern, developed and peaceful Sri Lanka in the line of Singapore. He envisaged to make Sri Lanka a kind of bridge between east and west, and to make it a beautiful island nation which can do business with the world. But aftermath of the war, almost nine months has elapsed, the ground reality shows that still the displaced have not been rehabilitated, and their conditions in the camps are still deplorable. President Rajpaksa declared his intention to have national elections even before the completion of his term, as he was sure, that the huge upsurge in Sinhalese nationalism, will lead him to victory.
Sarath Fonseka could emerge as a challenge to President Rajapaksa primarily owing to two reasons. Besides his Sinhalese origin, he was also considered as a war hero as under his leadership the Sri Lankan army defeated the rebels and ended the 26 year insurgency. He was supported by many opposition parties including the party of former president, Chandrika Kumartunga, and the Tamil group called Tamil National Alliance. The rainbow coalition was kin to cut into size the influence of Rajapaksa by supporting Fonseka. In fact after the war of last year, Rajapaksa has become immensely popular among the majority Sinhalese. Though Fonseka too has become popular, he has not the mass base as a political leader like that of Rajapaksa.
On 27 January 2010 the day the election results were declared there was wide media coverage that the disputed results may likely whet up violence in the country. There were reports that the armed troops surrounded the hotel Cinnamon Lake in Colombo where Fonseka was staying. These forces were withdrawn later. Fonseka also wrote to the Election Commissioner Dayananda Dissanayake alleging irregularities, and use of government machineries by Rajapaksa to ensure his victory. There were also reports that Fonseka appealed India for help. There were also reports of army coup or assassination attempt on Rajpaksa by Fonseka supporters. Amidst the massive celebrations in the southern Sri Lanka, the Tamils and Muslims in north east apprehend that the victory of Rajapaksa, for whom they did not vote, may likely further affect the reconciliation and development process in their regions.
As per the data revealed by the Election Commission, Rajapaksa’s Sri Lanka Freedom Party secured about 5.5 million votes while Fonseka’s New Democratic Front secured 3.9 million votes. In percentage terms, Rajapaksa won about 58 per cent of the votes this time, which is much higher than 50 per cent of votes he polled in 2005. Fonseka could secure 40 per cent of votes. In north and east Fonseka secured more votes than Rajapaksa as he was supported by the pro-government Eelam People’s Democratic Party in the north and Tamil National Alliance in the east. However, the Sinhese-Buddhist dominated south overwhelmingly voted in favour of Rajapaksa.
The coming days will be revealing as President Rajapaksa, who currently emerged as the most powerful leader in the island nation, unravels his future course of action particularly on the issues of minorities. The apparent peace which his government could secure last year may fizzle out unless he reaches out to the disenchanted minorities in the north east with some kind of accommodation that is acceptable by both the sides. It may be easy to conclude that the Tamil tigers are wiped out, hence there is no obstacle to peace, but it may not take much time the alienation of the minorities and their likely negligence in future may give birth to new insurgent movements. As President Rajapaksa has promised to address all these issues, it is likely that he will not be arrogating himself as the only representative of the majority after his massive victory but also as the leader of the whole Sri Lanka and initiate policies for an all inclusive development of all communities in an equitable process.
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